Republicans Should Be Very Worried After Winning TN-07 by Single Digits
Spending $4 million to win a Trump +22 district is not great.
I had a good laugh last night watching MAGA influencers scramble to celebrate what they called a win in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District. They were acting like it was some kind of triumph, when in reality, it was anything but.
National Republicans had to dump more than $4 million into defending a Trump +22 district. That is not a victory. Aftyn Behn, who ran a strong campaign, lost by about 9 points—that’s a 13-point overperformance for Democrats.
Yes, it’s true that we’ve seen stronger overperformances in other House specials. But here’s the thing: Republicans went all in. Full-court press. They juiced turnout to midterm levels. This wasn’t a sleepy, low-turnout race. It was a high-turnout race—exactly the kind of environment that’s supposed to benefit Republicans in a deep-red district.
And even in that environment, all they managed to do was hold on—by single digits. That should set off alarm bells.
If Democrats overperform in next year’s midterms by even close to that margin, states like Iowa, Alaska, and Texas come into play—if we run strong candidates. And a whole swath of Republican House seats will suddenly be vulnerable, especially in Texas, where their gerrymandered map may backfire.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we start seeing a bunch of Republican retirements in the coming weeks. That’ll throw gasoline on the dumpster fire already burning inside the GOP and the broader MAGA movement. More primaries, more chaos. And I’m not convinced the best Republican candidates are going to run this cycle.
What is likely is that MAGA candidates will flood the primaries—and historically, MAGA candidates do well in primaries but underperform in the general. That’s how you end up with a 2018-style blue wave, where Democrats are netting 8 to 13-point swings. And when we run the right candidates—and they run absolute clowns—you can squeeze out another 2 or 3 points on top of that.
So if you’re the kind of person who likes betting the prediction markets (I hate them personally), I’d start putting money on Democrats taking back the House. And I’d say the Senate is in play. It’s not easy—it’s a steep climb—but we’re landing recruits, building campaigns, raising money, and consistently overperforming.
Republicans should be terrified by what just happened in TN-07. This was a deep-red district with midterm-level turnout and a MAGA swarm behind it. Every influencer on the right zeroed in on this race. They treated beating Aftyn Behn like it was existential. But they can’t do that for every race in 2026. And Trump won’t be on the ballot to carry the dead weight.
Democrats need to cast the widest net possible this cycle. We need candidates who are well-funded, who fit their district, who can actually run good campaigns—and we need to do it everywhere. Compete everywhere.
Too often, Democrats play small ball—targeting a handful of battleground states and districts. And yeah, gerrymandering and structural stuff makes it hard in some places. But I don’t believe there’s a single place in America where it’s impossible for a Democrat to win. Not one.
So if you’re thinking about running for office? This is the time. Even if you lose—so what? We need people to fight. Make Republicans sweat. Make them earn their seats, even in deep-red districts. Especially in deep-red districts. Mike Johnson types shouldn’t just skate by. Force them to work for it, maybe for the first time in their careers.
And the more races we contest, the better candidates we run, the more shots we take—the more surprises we’ll see in 2026 up and down the ballot.
If we want the Senate back, if we want to actually govern and improve people’s lives, we’ve got to win races people don’t think are winnable.
Remember: this time in 2020, nobody thought we’d flip two Senate seats in Georgia. But we did. Strange things happen.
I always joke that when it comes to Texas and North Carolina, I’m Charlie Brown and the football keeps getting yanked away. But one of these days, it’s gonna connect. And if it’s going to happen, it’ll be when candidates like Roy Cooper and James Talarico are running, when Republicans are unpopular, and when voters are pissed about the economy.
We’ve got the makings of that now.
So sure—let Republicans gloat online. Let them channel Trump’s bullshit bravado. But Trump is in free fall. The GOP is in trouble. And the Democratic Party—flawed as it is—is on the rise heading into the midterms.
We still have work to do: building a better party, elevating stronger candidates, delivering more for working people. But heading into 2026, I’m feeling pretty damn good about our chances.
Right on, Mike
Was a long shot but they should be scared! Good read!