The Slow Collapse of the MAGA Movement

From QAnon to the tech right, cracks are forming in Trump's coalition.

I believe we’re witnessing the slow-moving death of the MAGA movement in real time over the Epstein cover-up. That doesn’t mean Donald Trump’s polling numbers are going to collapse overnight. And it certainly doesn’t guarantee Democrats a win—this November, next year in the midterms, or in the presidential election.

But it is a terrifying glimpse into the future for the Republican Party.

What we’re seeing are real fractures in the coalition Trump built—a coalition ranging from QAnon conspiracy theorists to Bible-thumping Republicans, to the tech right and Elon Musk, and many others who joined up with Trump hoping to get what they wanted out of the government.

This fiasco with Trump and Pam Bondi’s cover-up of the Epstein files and flight logs shows just how weak the MAGA movement really is. Even with Trump in the White House and Republicans controlling both the House and Senate, MAGA influencers now feel more emboldened than ever to speak out against their own leaders.

Just this week, Nick Fuentes—a radical, lunatic right-wing QAnon guy—told Trump to go fuck himself. We’ve seen plenty of other voices do the same. But this goes beyond the Epstein crisis. Steve Bannon, Laura Loomer, and others have spoken out about the Medicaid cuts in Trump’s bill. Tucker Carlson and others have criticized Trump’s warmongering on Iran. These are things that aren’t supposed to happen in a coalition Trump thinks he’s got wrapped around his finger.

And every time Trump opens his mouth, he makes it worse. Over the past week and a half, even Libs of TikTok—one of the most loyal pro-Trump accounts—has been begging him to shut the hell up online because he’s only making the Epstein situation worse, lashing out at supporters, calling them weak losers, and saying he doesn’t want their support.

As I’ve written twice this week: if the QAnon wing of MAGA stays home—if this movement fractures now or in the coming years without Trump at the helm—the Republican Party is in serious trouble. If Trump can no longer lead because his base doesn’t trust him—and keep in mind, 71% of Americans say nothing he’s done in the last eight months has improved their lives—his political support in Washington will crater. Most Americans are more pessimistic than optimistic about the country’s future—more than halfway through Trump’s first year.

If Trump no longer commands an army willing to show up and primary Republicans who defy him, his power vanishes. The reason he passed that horrendous budget, the reason people like Pete Hegseth—wildly unqualified—got top jobs, is because Republicans in Congress are terrified of losing their primaries. They’d rather limp to a general election with a shot at beating a Democrat than defy Trump.

Now, I don’t think the MAGA movement collapses today. Probably not even within the next year. But what we’re seeing—fractures over Epstein, the budget, Iran, and more—is the prelude to what happens when the GOP tries to nominate someone in 2028.

Political strategists always overestimate how long movements outlive their figureheads. Remember how Democratic strategists said Republicans would never win again because of the Obama coalition? That coalition didn’t stick around. They didn’t show up for Hillary. They barely showed up for Biden. And they sure as hell didn’t turn out for Kamala.

The same thing is happening here. American politics is heading for a reset. Some wings of MAGA will retreat, disengage, or reject whoever takes over the GOP next. And more than anything, I think this Epstein fiasco will be the tipping point for the QAnon crowd.

A new coalition will rise. Whether it’s Democratic or Republican, I don’t know. I won’t pretend Democrats are destined to win in four years—not with the chaos and pain we’re living through. But I do believe MAGA will go down as a failed movement. And Trump will be remembered as the scam artist he is—by both the people who voted for him and those of us who stood against him when it mattered most.

That’s what we’re witnessing now, however slowly. And the civil war that’s coming—losers like J.D. Vance trying to claim Trump’s mantle when it’s time—will make it even harder to hold this fractured base together.

The biggest question I have looking ahead to 2028 is whether establishment Republicans can regain even partial control of the party. That alone could shift the tone and tenor of our politics—even if it’s still terrible and regressive. And then we’ll see what kind of leader Democrats put forward, and whether they can build a new coalition to reshape American politics and move our country forward after what I believe will be the colossal failure of Trump’s second term.