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Hey folks,
This one is wild. Harry Enten is back at the big board with numbers that spell serious trouble for Donald Trump and Republicans heading into the midterms — especially with Hispanic men, a group Trump made historic gains with in 2024.
And the collapse isn’t just about Trump. It’s showing up in how people say they plan to vote.
[00:01:03] Harry breaks down the brutal shift among Hispanic men: from Trump winning them by 10 points in 2024 to a net approval rating of minus 41.
[00:03:05] It gets even worse on the economy — Trump’s approval with Hispanic men plunges 49 points underwater, a stunning 60-point swing from 2024.
[00:05:13] Here’s the number Republicans should really fear: Hispanic men now favor Democrats for Congress by 20 points, a 28-point swing away from the GOP.
[00:07:21] We zoom out to the national picture, where Trump is underwater in 47 of 50 states — and talk about what that could mean for Senate and House races across the country.
[00:10:10] After Trump lashes out at CNN reporter Kristen Holmes, I read CNN’s response defending her and talk about why attacks on the free press matter.
This episode is about more than one ugly poll. We’re watching voters who took a chance on Trump move sharply away from him, while Republicans face the possibility that their own political strategy could backfire spectacularly. But none of these numbers matter unless people actually show up in November. If you value conversations that cut through the noise and help build something better, help me keep them going.
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With urgency,
—Mike
