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Hey folks,
Republicans have a serious problem heading into November: Donald Trump.
The numbers are brutal, his popularity has cratered, and instead of letting Republican candidates build their own brands, Trump seems determined to make the entire midterm election a referendum on himself. That could create opportunities for Democrats in places we normally wouldn’t even dare to dream about.
This one gets me fired up. But there’s an important warning here too: none of this is guaranteed.
[00:01:03] Trump has a massive war chest—and apparently wants to spend it making the midterms all about himself.
[00:03:12] Why even longtime Republican voters who won’t vote Democratic could still spell disaster for the GOP by staying home.
[00:05:22] The Republican turnout problem hiding underneath Trump’s numbers—and why Democrats desperately want this election to be a referendum on him.
[00:07:31] Prediction markets are moving sharply toward Democrats taking the House as the possibility of a wave grows.
[00:09:21] Bad candidates, gerrymandering mistakes, economic pain, corruption, and Democratic recruitment collide into a potential perfect storm for Republicans.
We’re looking at the possibility of a genuinely historic Democratic wave—one that could reach into Texas, Alaska, Iowa, Ohio, Georgia, Nebraska, and places we’re accustomed to writing off. But there are still two months to go. Money will be spent. News will break. Voters will change their minds.
So we cannot sit around admiring the polls. We have to run through the tape, volunteer, donate, organize, and stay engaged. If you value independent media that keeps people informed and ready to act, help me keep building it.
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With urgency,
—Mike
