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Hey folks,
The midterms are getting closer, and the warning signs for Republicans are getting harder to ignore.
In this episode, I break down a stunning CNN polling segment on Donald Trump and independent voters, the Republican candidates suddenly distancing themselves from Trump and the Iran war, and what I’m seeing in races that weren’t supposed to be competitive.
This one gets wild.
[00:01:51] CNN breaks down Trump’s numbers with “pure independents”—including an enormous shift from the 2024 election.
[00:03:33] I dig into what these numbers could mean for Democrats in the midterms—and why I think the potential political environment could extend well beyond the usual battlegrounds.
[00:06:18] The fractures get more serious as Republican senators call for an investigation involving Donald Trump Jr. and his dealings.
[00:08:36] We go down ballot, where Republican candidates are distancing themselves from Trump—including changes to Byron Donalds’ campaign website in Florida.
[00:10:13] A reality check: encouraging polling doesn’t win elections. There’s still time left, and Democrats can’t get complacent or stop doing the work.
There’s a lot happening here: independents moving sharply against Trump in the polling discussed in the episode, Republican candidates changing their positioning, and increasingly competitive races across the map. But none of that means the outcome is predetermined. We still have to organize, stay engaged, and run through the tape. If you value independent political coverage and conversations like this, help me keep building it.
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With urgency,
—Mike
