How Gavin Newsom Got His Groove Back

It’s a hell of a glow-up. But it’s not a coronation.

By now, I’m sure most people reading my Substack have seen the social media blitz coming out of Gavin Newsom’s camp over the last two weeks. It’s bold, it’s sharp, and honestly, brilliant.

I’ve never been Gavin Newsom’s biggest fan—I’ve said as much plenty of times—but even I have to admit: some of these posts are absolute bangers. The video with Brian Tyler Cohen, where Newsom reads off those Trumpian shitposts from his own team? Great stuff.

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It’s been fun to watch and to an extent, refreshing to see a Democrat not be afraid to reflect the same ludicrousness back at the Republicans. It kicked off a wave of enthusiasm from the lefty influencer crowd (some of whom I firmly believe are being paid for this engagement, but all’s fair in love and war).

Newsom is already seeing this strategy play in his favor—he’s gained millions of new followers and had a billion impressions in the last week. Suddenly, a lot of people are saying Gavin Newsom is the frontrunner for the Democratic nomination. Suddenly, every Democrat should be copying this exact playbook, say people in my social feeds.

But let me just pump the brakes a bit. Yes, the content is good. His digital team should be proud. But let’s not lose sight of who this is for: extremely online Democrats. Not median voters in battleground states who decide presidential elections.

I’m the target demographic. You, reading this, might be too. But I spent time this weekend with some friends who don’t live and breathe politics like we do, and I asked if they’d seen any of it. A couple had. Most hadn’t. And the ones who did? They thought it was weird. Not compelling. Just… weird. And it didn’t make them more likely to vote for Newsom because they didn’t know what he stood for, or how he was going to help them.

That’s not unique to Democrats either. Republicans have the same issue: their digital content is aimed squarely at their own base. Just look at the White House’s social feed—some of the most grotesque, culture-war-drenched garbage I have ever seen. All that “defending our culture” nonsense? We know what that really means.

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To be clear, this isn’t me knocking Newsom or his team. Frankly, I’m envious. As someone who’s done digital strategy for 20 years—including working for Newsom in his first election for Governor—I wish more of my clients had given me the kind of leash his team clearly has. It’s working in ways even they have to be surprised about—firing up the base, building intensity, creating momentum, drawing a crowd.

And yes, he’s shot up in a few early primary polls. That’s not nothing. But to me, that says more about how unsettled the Democratic electorate is. People are frustrated. They want someone—anyone—who looks like they’re ready to throw not just one punch, but multiple. And Newsom’s doing that. He’s stepping into the ring, pushing past the early mistakes he made at the beginning of the year with his podcast, and throwing punches.

That said, we need to stop pretending that going viral with “Very Online” content means you’ve cracked the code with swing voters—or voters who just don’t care about politics until the last possible second. Or simply Americans who are tired of the narratives that sow continued division in the country. As a society, we have never been so politically divided as we are now; people are sick of it, and if I had to guess Newsom’s content isn’t helping with that issue.

Not every Democrat should try this style. Social media strategy has to match the person, the audience, and the moment. What works for Gavin Newsom, governor of the most liberal state in the country, is not going to work for a Democrat in a battleground House race. It’s not going to work for Sherrod Brown in Ohio, where the audience will be very different in that race. That kind of snarky, swaggering online presence that’s geared to inspire online liberals and anger conservatives? It ain’t gonna land, and it would be wildly off brand for him.

It would have also been off-brand for Barack Obama, Kamala Harris, AOC, Gretchen Whitmer, or many other Democratic leaders. In fact, I would argue it works for Newsom specifically because he’s acting like a blank slate Democrat in the middle of a highly partisan fight with very little actual policy meat on the bones at a time when people are desperate for solutions.

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To build a coalition big enough to win back the House, hold the Senate, and win the presidency in 2028, Democrats will need variety. Different strategies. Different voices. Be interesting, of course, but say something real that resonates with your core audience. Take a risk. That’s what people want. That’s what they reward. Trump does it. Newsom’s doing it well enough for his own political gain today. But again—that doesn’t mean copy-paste his playbook.

After you’ve fired up your base, what comes next? How are you going to build upon that, evolve, and engage with others outside of your base, your bubble? How are you going to articulate a vision for the future of this country?

I’m still skeptical of Newsom as a general election candidate. I don’t believe voters in swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin are going to love his record or style. I question his vision for moving this country forward and his yet-to-be shared proposed solutions to help people pay their bills or buy a house. But that’s a conversation for another day. For now, he’s playing a valuable role in this gerrymandering fight and in giving Democrats something to believe in ahead of the midterms.

That ain’t nothing.

But let’s not confuse momentum with inevitability. In this primary, you’re going to keep seeing moments where someone gets hot, says something sharp, picks a fight with Trump and his hand-picked Republican primary candidate, finds their lane, and climbs in the polls. That’s going to happen again and again—ask AOC, Cory Booker, and a few others who have popped in the polls. Just don’t put blinders on. There’s a lot of time left before we choose a nominee.

We don’t even know what the nomination calendar will look like. We don’t know who’s officially in. We don’t know who’s going to raise the money, build a great team, etc…

So yeah, enjoy the content. It’s good. It’s for you (and me!). And it’s good for our health to have some comic reprieve. But don’t mistake good tweets for the path to the presidency. Just because one tweet goes viral in your feed, doesn’t mean it resonated with anyone beyond your own algorithm. There’s a long road ahead. And with Trump back in the White House, the stakes couldn’t be higher. You never know who’s going to rise to the moment—or who’s going to collapse under pressure.

One last thing: I’ve said before that the Democratic Party is very hijackable right now. Same way Republicans were in 2016. Trump took it over and never gave it back. The same could happen here if Democrats don’t rally behind someone who’s exciting, relatable, and has a real vision, beyond online clout. That’s why you’re hearing people float names like Jon Stewart, Stephen A. Smith, or Mark Cuban.

Could Newsom ride this momentum and win the nomination? Sure. Would he struggle in the general? I think so, but maybe we can build a coalition I can’t yet see. Part of it is what Newsom decides to do with this new momentum and how he continues to serve the people of California, his constituents, who elected him. Anything can happen. That’s why anyone thinking about 2028 needs more than vibes. You need vision. You need connection. You need a plan. And you need the operation to pull it off and deliver. Otherwise, we’re ripe for a hijacking similar to what Trump did to the Republicans—and that might not end well, even if we win.

Look at the GOP. They got their man (twice now), and now they’re stuck with him and his cadre of grifter losers—flailing through a second term that’s already a disaster, especially on the economy. It’ll get worse. Everyday Americans are already beginning to pay for it. And the GOP will pay the price in the long run.

So take this moment for what it is. Newsom’s digital game is top-tier. But all it really proves is how hungry people are for any bit of fight and how fluid this moment is—for the party, for the country, and for 2028.

Eyes on the ball, folks.