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Hey folks,
Jumping in with a bonus live episode for you. I sat down with Simon Bazelon from Decide to Win to unpack the Tennessee special election, what Afton Bain’s race actually tells us about 2026, and how Democrats can win in places Trump carried by 20+. We got into candidate quality, “defund,” crime, guns, and what it really means to be a populist Democrat in deep-red territory.
[00:01:07] Simon breaks down the Tennessee special election results, why Trump’s unpopularity is driving huge Democratic overperformance, and what a 13-point overperformance in a Trump +22 district actually means.
[00:05:18] We argue about Afton Bain’s “ideological baggage,” how much “defund the police” really costs Democrats at the margins, and whether midterm-level turnout and GOP spending matter more than one candidate’s history.
[00:10:32] Zooming out to 2026: what a D+ environment might look like, how Iowa, Alaska, and Texas come into play, and why both parties keep leaving winnable seats on the table with the wrong nominees.
[00:15:41] We dig into the Democratic brand problem—crime, immigration, guns, “HR department” vibes, and climate—plus what a real working-class economic populism has to sound like if we actually want cheap gas, clean air, and votes.
[00:21:12] I put Amanda Litman’s “reply guys” challenge to Simon directly; he talks about doing the work on actual campaigns, Welcome PAC’s early track record, and the kinds of candidates he thinks can flip Trump country.
This conversation is for anyone who cares less about vibes and more about actually winning power—especially in the South and in places where the Democratic brand is, frankly, in the toilet. If you value honest, sometimes uncomfortable strategy talks like this—and want more case studies, more reporting, and more live sessions—help me keep them going by becoming a paid subscriber.
Become a paid subscriber to Endless Urgency today »
With urgency,
—Mike
